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The CyberSpace
by Michael Solomon
A Whole New Internet World
Two years ago when I first attended "Internet World" it was a big, glitzy, unfocused circus, much the same as the Internet of the time. Now, two years later at the Los Angeles Convention Center, I attended again and the change was astounding.
If there was an emphasis two years ago, it was gadgets and site building. Also, as you walked the floor, many of the major Internet destinations had booths on the floor as well. This year, the gadgets were gone, there were virtually no booths from major Internet destinations and instead of the focus being on individuals and what they might do with the Internet, it was focused on business and wireless.
This has implications for all of us.
I'm sure the demise of the free ISP has not been lost on anyone. This was caused by poor business models and a change in the telecommunications industry that forced various phone carriers to pay interconnect access fees that were ultimately passed on to the ISPs. At that point, the free services' already fragile business model collapsed.
But the phone companies are becoming marginal players in this game. Where once the phone company was the backbone of the Internet, the backbone is rapidly being transformed by fiber optic and coaxial cable. Instead of being the backbone, the phone company is being pushed to the "last mile," the connection between the home and the primary backbone and its grip on the last mile is tenuous.
While this presages a change in how we will be accessing the Internet, it also is a sign business is starting to get serious about the Internet. This is important because it will affect the cost of individual access. In order for the Internet to survive, it must become more than just a plaything for the masses. It must be a means of generating revenue.
Many people don't realize long distance phone business subsidized local phone business, keeping local rates low and affordable for most which is one of the reasons, aside from the revenue increase, local telcos are clamoring to get into that business. Long distance phone business is largely the domain of business customers.
Businesses are now beginning to learn, the Internet is much more than web sites, it's a new means of communication that greatly extends their ability to stay in touch with employees and customers. Major brick and mortar retailers are beginning to see the Internet, not as a competitor or replacement for their primary business but a supplement and adjunct to it.
Ultimately, this will be good for all of us. First, we will benefit from the enhanced Internet necessary to provide the services now being planned. Second, if advertising and consumption are going to drive these services, providers are going to want to make our access as easy and inexpensive as possible. After all, we don't pay an entry fee to go to a mall.
This differs from the current Internet model where access is still the primary revenue stream for the Internet. This holds the Internet back from developing into a true venue for commerce.
An individual paying a monthly fee for Internet access is less likely to subscribe to some other service being provided on the Net. An individual paying a monthly access fee has less disposable income. Also, many services, while offering unlimited access discourage persistent connections and that discourages eyeballs at web sites.
If there was one thing clear at this year's "Internet World" the means and methods of accessing the Internet are about to undergo a radical change.
If you are a road warrior, a whole new range of services will soon be available. Suppose, while you are already on the road, you suddenly get a call from the home office changing your next destination. Services are being built that will allow you to find what flights are currently available as well as hotels and room availability and allow you to make new reservations directly from your wireless device.
The next generation of wireless phones and other wireless devices are being built to accommodate this change. This will bring easy access to information that doesn't require you to jump from site to site but only to access a central database.
Anyone who has a broadband connection today has already dealt with the disappointment that while downloads are much faster, moving from site to site is often no faster than their old 56K connection. This should improve immensely in the next few years. To facilitate this, the Internet is about to get smarter.
Instead of having to make multiple hops to a site, information will be stored at multiple sites nationwide. Routers and switches will be smarter as they will not simply ferret out a route to a designated site, they will ferret out the shortest distance between two points.
Streaming media, especially video looks to be a growing aspect of the new Internet and it will be facilitated, in part, by these technological changes already being implemented. Once in place, it may well change or at least augment the current method of advertising that relies primarily on banner ads or various other ads that rely on placement.
If you go to CNN for example to view a replay of one of their programs, in this new scenario, they'll be able to include ads much as they do during the television broadcast. Some of you may cringe at the thought but it will help keep access to such sites free.
This is not to say that the Internet will become one vast mall but those that have been supplying information need a revenue stream to keep their sites viable and this is one way for them to do so. I don't care for the idea of having ads inserted in e-mail and many providers are finding this bothers a lot of users. Streaming media offers an alternative. I don't know about the rest of you but I often have the TV or radio going while I'm connected. In my case, they are usually tuned to the news.
Since my visual attention is focused on my monitor, I'm only listening to the news. Streaming media and new methods of broadcast now being developed offer the potential of allowing a user to listen to CNN or some other news source, commercials and all, while moving about the Internet.
Personally, I don't find that objectionable, it keeps me informed while performing another task and it's far less intrusive than many of the ads we endure at web sites today. Also, it would save energy because I wouldn't have the television or some other device operating while I'm at my computer.
The media companies are already planning their forays into this arena and the next generation of PCs will be designed to be ready for it. For example, you can already buy graphics cards that include TV tuners as well as the ability to record to your hard drive much as you can use a VCR.
As this type of media becomes more readily available, you'll be able to listen as outlined above, using your PC and if there is something of interest, you'll be able to place a video inset on your monitor screen or even go full screen if that's your desire to access breaking news without leaving your PC.
While that means the PC's functionality will expand, more changes are on the horizon. With the advent of digital television, you truly will be able to surf the Net much as you would on your PC. It's likely, many local television stations may well offer web access for free because it would enhance their viewer base as well as their advertising revenue.
Where once they were limited to their programming, there's a whole range of services they'll now be able to offer and because this will simply augment their broadcast services they stand to have greater success with it than those who have recently tried and failed. There are already businesses in place that can help provide these services to these potential access providers and that means they won't have to make a major investment, rather they will have a set fee and a fairly precise fix on cost.
None of this means the Internet as a conduit for self-expression or entrepreneurship is a dying commodity. In fact, this may well expand such opportunities because there will be more not fewer points of entry and possibly even a share of the revenue.
This boils down to an Internet that offers us more convenience and provides us with a wider array of services. It doesn't mean that the television and the PC will become one so much as an ability for television to come closer to fulfilling its potential while expanding the capabilities of the PC will beyond the desktop in ways we're just beginning to explore.
Copyright 2001 Michael Solomon
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